Time for a fresh new thread.
RESULTS: LA SoS | Associated Press
11:54PM (David): In the end, Cao wins 50-47.
11:22PM (David): So LA-02 is D+28 (old PVI). There is no district that is as red as this one is blue – UT-03 tops out at R+26. This reminds me of IL-05 in 1994 (1990s PVI: D+11) – corrupt Dan Rostenkowski got beaten by the unknown Michael Flanagan, who got soundly thumped by Rod Blagojevich two years later. Hopefully whoever beats Cao in 2010 will be a bigger upgrade over Jefferson than Blago was over Rosto.
11:15PM: The AP calls it for Cao! LOL!
11:04PM: Damn, looks like we fell short. Fleming leads by 350 votes with 100% of precincts reporting.
Lets DO THIS!
300 votes…
350 seems like a lot to overcome in this dismal turnout election.
Fleming is up 300 votes with everything in. Dammit.
And Jefferson’s losing as well. Melancon might be the only congressional Dem left after tonight.
Now I’ve got my popcorn out for LA-02. Looks like Jefferson will win–barely.
LA-04 missed the boat. The people chose the status quo and thus are going to get another irrelevant minority congressman who can do nothing for the 4th district.
the Democrats always win the elections outside the general election date. This person is WRONG.
LOL!
for Cao!!!
Obama gained a couple hundred votes with provisionals in the general in Caddo. Carmouche would probably be lucky to gain 100 this time, however. Still it’s definitely worth watching the provisionals.
precincts of New Orleans.
This probably won’t be popular, but I think it would be good if Cao won. We have to hold Democratic representatives to the same standard we hold Republicans. Scumbags shouldn’t be in Congress, regardless of party. Jefferson is an embarrassment to the Democratic Party and the sooner he is gone, the better. And there’s basically no way Cao would hold the district in 2010, unless he becomes the most liberal Republican in the House, and even that wouldn’t guarantee it (see Lampson, Nick).
Granted, that would also spur on the crowing of Republicans about some kind of anti-Democratic shift in the electorate, as if LA-02 were some kind of bellwether. But it’s not like there’s a narrative to be built 23 months from the next election.
Will Cao start a new republican Asian-American caucus with himself being the one and only member?
I’m predicting pretty much a tossup now… whoever wins, he won’t do so with more than 51-52%. Precincts left in Orleans are almost certainly from very heavily Jefferson-friendly areas.
See my Dkos diary
Since it’s only 300 votes between Fleming and Carmouche?
Fixing the votes for Jefferson? They just stopped reporting…
http://josephcaoforcongress.co…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S…
This “Society of Jesus” sounds like a very strange and shadowy group.
It seems that after every Presidential election (GWB the exception), the party that loses the White House often scores an unexpected win in a special election.
The 4th was a GOP seat already. This is LA. You know the McCain state. Plus with Jindal as Gov. following Blanco, the GOP has a better rep generally in LA, than the country as a whole.
Jefferson got beat because he was corrupt. I say horrah, be glad to be rid of him. He was baggage for the party for every day he stayed in Congress. Now Sean and Rush will have to find a new punching bag. Now Jefferson’s trial will get far less publicity, and thus create less harm to the Dems generally.
Cao will be the Nick Lampson (in reverse)for 2010, so the Dems will pick up at LEAST that seat.
It would have been nice to add the 4th to the D column, and it always sucks to lose one so close.
But, these results coupled with GA-Sen., will serve as a reminder that the GOP ain’t dead, its just down. So don’t govern as if they can’t come back, because they can (and will eventually). By extention, that will help Obama stay in the center-lane of politics, which is exactly where he needs to stay.
I think he will be the first black incumbent Democrat to ever lose to a non-Democrat in a general election.
We would have easily held LA-02 had the general been on the real election day and likely won LA-04 thanks to black turnout for Obama.
Jefferson loses by just under 2,000 votes. Good riddance, and let’s take the seat back in 2010.
31,296 46.82% William J. Jefferson, D –
1,880 2.81% Malik Rahim, G –
548 .82% Gregory W. Kahn, L –
33,122 49.55% Anh “Joseph” Cao, R
A few years ago who would have guessed Melancon would be the only Dem left in the LA congressional delegation?
republicans won three House races in this state this year with less than 50 percent of the vote: LA- 2, 4, and 6–mostly due to third and fourth party candidates. Unbelievable.
That was surprisingly accurate…
See my Dkos diary: here
I didn’t mean Jefferson would have won without those two. I meant that we lost three seats to candidates who couldn’t even garner 50 percent. We should get back the second, and maybe the sixth in two years with a good candidate. But, this loss tonight hurts. Carmouche is probably the only Democrat who could have won this district. He probably could have held it for a long time, and potentially set up another Democrat to take his place. I don’t think he has the fire to run again in two years. If he did, I wouldn’t like his chances. We had an opportunity here to take a 4-3 lead in the House delegation in the state earlier in the year. But external factors like hurricanes and third party candidates changed the balance from a likely 4-3 in our favor to 6-1 in the other party’s favor. A win by Carmouche in a republican district would have offset that loss in the sixth. I don’t see us winning the fourth anytime soon. Frustrating year here.
The DCCC should recruit good candidates and run hard against Fleming and Bill Cassidy in 2010 or else they’ll be in for life.
…but Katrina gave Republicans their own little fiefdom in Louisiana. It gave us the White House.
Notwithstanding the glorious ouster of Jefferson, and the practical inevitability of LA-02 being back in our column two years from now, there is an upside to this: with only one Democrat in the Louisiana delegation, I think we all know which side is gonna suffer when the state loses a House seat.
CD Obama McCain
LA-01 25.34% 73.05%
LA-02 74.29% 24.70%
LA-03 36.62% 61.38%
LA-04 39.58% 59.27%
LA-05 36.72% 61.99%
LA-06 41.35% 57.31%
LA-07 34.96% 63.38%
The Republican Party turning into the regional party of the South has negative consequences for Southern Democrats, unfortunately.
http://www.progressiveelectora…
This result got me thinking whats to stop newly elected rep. Cao from running for David Vitters seat in the Republican Primary. He can use a combo of anti-corruption and family values. I’m not sure if anti-courruption platform would fly with the GOP but the family values crap sure worked out for Vitter.
Even if not, there should totally be a recount.
He’s a community organizer. How ironic.
I thought you needed 50% + 1 to win in Louisiana?
Generic non-corrupt Black Democrat – 66%
Cao – 34%
Cao’s ceiling is roughly the high 30’s if he votes like a complete RINO.
jefferson should have been primaried out
on Absentee ballots though?
“the Democrats always win the elections outside the general election date.”
I didn’t say a thig about a runoff.
I’m shocked at how much he underperformed against her, and Landrieu isn’t even from his part of the state. Landrieu won Nachidotches by about 8%, Red River by about 18, Bienville by 18, Bossier 59-39, and won Clairborne which he lost. He even underperformed by a percentage point in his political base of 30 years, a place where he could have won by padding his margin by a few more percentage points over her.